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Feeling the Chill?
There's certainly more than just the outside temperature that appears to have chilled in the past several weeks. From Consumer Confidence, Economic Outlook Indicators, and National Real Estate Forecasts have all seemed to enter a temporary cool down. While optimism abound just a few short months ago, it's interesting to see how the economic tide has shifted so quickly. Certainly we experienced market exuberance when we all witnessed the rapid run up in prices from April to July of this year. However with that, we also observed that pure economics went out the window as people started to price their houses ahead of the curve, thinking the market would shortly catch up to their ideal price in order to make a move. Buyers however retreated as economic confidence took a dive in early August and the broad economic indicators shifted, now creating a new unexpected downward path. While I don't believe this will be the start of a new housing bubble locally as we have a much stronger economic base developing here in our area. From the OSC Cascades Campus launch to several new start up's throughout the region, we're no longer just a tourism driven economy which will help to lessen the impact of the market cycles in our area. However, if the National Economy falters and enters into a new recessionary period as some economists are now predicting, we'll certainly feel the impact. With that being said, it's easy to see the declining trends within our own MLS data. Available housing supply or Months of Available inventory as we call it in our industry increased 40.6% in the last 3 months and Average time on the market increased 15.7% in the last 3 months. The number of property sales still hovers at an average of 1000 units per month here in the Bend area. However I would expect that number to begin to drop as there is a typical 30-45 day lag time between the submittal of an offer and the closing timeline. With new contracts on the decline, we'll begin to see these figures decline in the months to come. While we do normally anticipate a seasonal slowdown this time of year, this one came a little bit earlier and came on a little stronger than normal. So we'll be closely monitoring the market data in the coming weeks to help us assess the direction of our market. As always, housing needs are not always dictated by our timing and sometimes necessitate unfavorable timing for the purchase and sale of a home. That being said, rest assure that we'll continue to do our absolute best to position your home for maximum exposure in an effort to help you realize the maximum the market will bear. Before your next move, call one of our real estate experts today! In these uncertain times, experienced representation by a market professional is imperative!
If you have at all been considering a move, give us a call today!
By: Terry Denoux, PC, ABR, GRI
Managing Principal Broker
BHGRE Northwest Living
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